US China expert Kenneth Lieberthal criticises Japan

Kenneth Lieberthal is talking in riddles. Some say he is quoted out of context by the Chinese media. Others thought that he was speaking with a conscience. Or was this a Freudian slip? 

China's economic and military leverage has certainly strengthened in recent years. 

Unlike most who sided with Japan recently, Lieberthal ought to know the history well. Japan's acquisition of the islands was a gift on the silver platter from American troops at a time when China was weak and rebuilding the country, unable to resist losing its territories to aggressors. 

Japan and its supporters cannot change the facts that the islands were under Chinese jurisdiction during the Ming dynasty with documented evidence and the recognition accorded by the Cairo Declaration and the Potsdam Declaration.   

If Japan indeed believes that it has a strong case, it would not need to posture, nationalise or buy up the Diaoyutai islands. Whether by historical or territorial boundaries, Japan lacks ammunition to stake claims, except with its loud complaining voice and encouragement of its military ally. It is orchestrated with the Philippines and Vietnam to exert pressure on China when it's vulnerable during leadership change.

Japan broke consensus with China on Diaoyu Islands

Updated: 2012-09-21  

WASHINGTON - The Japanese government's bid to "nationalize" the Diaoyu Islands hadbroken its consensus with China to shelve the territorial dispute, a US expert said Thursday. 

"First of all, I think that Japan's actions have been key in explaining what China has done," saidKenneth Lieberthal, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution who had been the seniordirector for Asia at the National Security Council in the Clinton administration.

Speaking at a symposium at the Washington-based think tank, he also admitted it was a "hugemistake" when US government officials made comments that suggested Washington did have aposition on the dispute. 

"I think that does us no good. And occasionally, some comments like that have come out,"Lieberthal said. "I think that they are regrettable."

http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/world/2012-09/21/content_15774792.htm

http://www.bloomberg.com/video/63260542-brookings-s-lieberthal-interview-on-china-s-diplomacy.html

Nevertheless, China should not, has not and would not throw away what its hard won respect and gains built up over the years through diplomacy.  As we write, both countries are holding consultations. Clearly escalation would neither benefit China nor Japan. 

The onus is really on Japan to resolve the crisis fairly. This is unlikely with a right-wing domination of the Japanese government bent on militarising bilateral issues at the expense of economic benefits and regional stability. However, China unlike the US does not partake in regime change around the world. 

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/china/2012-09/25/c_131872241.htm

Where is Xi Jinping? Wild Speculations on Chinese leadership

What is the big deal when an up-and-coming leader has not been seen in public for less than two weeks. In the days when China was closed, such observations are probably more important. But should outsiders make too much of a molehill? 

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/asia/xi-jinping-the-leader-who-isnt-there-8126166.html

Just like people in the developed countries, workers and employers do need to take a break, let alone a potential leader who is having a rest before embarking on hard work. Unlike the show biz of US presidential elections where every appearance counts, the Chinese political system is more muted. The post-Mao leadership does not encourage high profile posturing, and hence succession has become more stable, contrary to what critics are saying.  

However, not everyone believes in the wild speculations from terminal illness, kidnapping to assassination attempt. Certainly, there is a lot on the mind of Xi Jinping who will likely to be tasked to shoulder many responsibilities and resolve some serious and day-to-day issues. 

Australia's former Prime Minister and ex-Foreign Minister thought that people were over-reacting. Just because a man is mingling among a billion people and not to jeopardise the elections of new leadership, do not warrant a doomsday speculation. 

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-09-12/australia-s-rudd-says-people-over-excited-by-xi-jinping-absence

The psychology that believing becomes the truth could be the scenario that some writers are hoping to realise.  That China is unstable, unpredictable and crumbling nation is an attractive notion. 

The ones who are really worried seem to be mainly journalists and a handful of academics. The story has not really caused much concern among the mainland Chinese who have seen more tumultuous and difficult times. 

Apparently, words are cheap these days when everyone chips in his or her two cents worth of conspiracy theories, only to be proven wrong every time, but would never give up with continuing the exciting game of fuelling wild rumours.  Boy, they will be are in for a big surprise!