US China expert Kenneth Lieberthal criticises Japan

Kenneth Lieberthal is talking in riddles. Some say he is quoted out of context by the Chinese media. Others thought that he was speaking with a conscience. Or was this a Freudian slip? 

China's economic and military leverage has certainly strengthened in recent years. 

Unlike most who sided with Japan recently, Lieberthal ought to know the history well. Japan's acquisition of the islands was a gift on the silver platter from American troops at a time when China was weak and rebuilding the country, unable to resist losing its territories to aggressors. 

Japan and its supporters cannot change the facts that the islands were under Chinese jurisdiction during the Ming dynasty with documented evidence and the recognition accorded by the Cairo Declaration and the Potsdam Declaration.   

If Japan indeed believes that it has a strong case, it would not need to posture, nationalise or buy up the Diaoyutai islands. Whether by historical or territorial boundaries, Japan lacks ammunition to stake claims, except with its loud complaining voice and encouragement of its military ally. It is orchestrated with the Philippines and Vietnam to exert pressure on China when it's vulnerable during leadership change.

Japan broke consensus with China on Diaoyu Islands

Updated: 2012-09-21  

WASHINGTON - The Japanese government's bid to "nationalize" the Diaoyu Islands hadbroken its consensus with China to shelve the territorial dispute, a US expert said Thursday. 

"First of all, I think that Japan's actions have been key in explaining what China has done," saidKenneth Lieberthal, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution who had been the seniordirector for Asia at the National Security Council in the Clinton administration.

Speaking at a symposium at the Washington-based think tank, he also admitted it was a "hugemistake" when US government officials made comments that suggested Washington did have aposition on the dispute. 

"I think that does us no good. And occasionally, some comments like that have come out,"Lieberthal said. "I think that they are regrettable."

http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/world/2012-09/21/content_15774792.htm

http://www.bloomberg.com/video/63260542-brookings-s-lieberthal-interview-on-china-s-diplomacy.html

Nevertheless, China should not, has not and would not throw away what its hard won respect and gains built up over the years through diplomacy.  As we write, both countries are holding consultations. Clearly escalation would neither benefit China nor Japan. 

The onus is really on Japan to resolve the crisis fairly. This is unlikely with a right-wing domination of the Japanese government bent on militarising bilateral issues at the expense of economic benefits and regional stability. However, China unlike the US does not partake in regime change around the world. 

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/china/2012-09/25/c_131872241.htm

Where is Xi Jinping? Wild Speculations on Chinese leadership

What is the big deal when an up-and-coming leader has not been seen in public for less than two weeks. In the days when China was closed, such observations are probably more important. But should outsiders make too much of a molehill? 

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/asia/xi-jinping-the-leader-who-isnt-there-8126166.html

Just like people in the developed countries, workers and employers do need to take a break, let alone a potential leader who is having a rest before embarking on hard work. Unlike the show biz of US presidential elections where every appearance counts, the Chinese political system is more muted. The post-Mao leadership does not encourage high profile posturing, and hence succession has become more stable, contrary to what critics are saying.  

However, not everyone believes in the wild speculations from terminal illness, kidnapping to assassination attempt. Certainly, there is a lot on the mind of Xi Jinping who will likely to be tasked to shoulder many responsibilities and resolve some serious and day-to-day issues. 

Australia's former Prime Minister and ex-Foreign Minister thought that people were over-reacting. Just because a man is mingling among a billion people and not to jeopardise the elections of new leadership, do not warrant a doomsday speculation. 

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-09-12/australia-s-rudd-says-people-over-excited-by-xi-jinping-absence

The psychology that believing becomes the truth could be the scenario that some writers are hoping to realise.  That China is unstable, unpredictable and crumbling nation is an attractive notion. 

The ones who are really worried seem to be mainly journalists and a handful of academics. The story has not really caused much concern among the mainland Chinese who have seen more tumultuous and difficult times. 

Apparently, words are cheap these days when everyone chips in his or her two cents worth of conspiracy theories, only to be proven wrong every time, but would never give up with continuing the exciting game of fuelling wild rumours.  Boy, they will be are in for a big surprise!

Gu Kailai trial - delicate balance of politics, justice and the world stage

Just as closure of the case seemed definite, the file has been reopened on the back of international pressure and leadership succession.  Had it not been for the fall of Gu's husband Bo Xilai, the case may not have been prioritised and managed with great caution. From the little details that have leaked through (deliberately or inadvertently) the apparently tightly controlled court proceedings and media, readers can draw the conclusion that Neil Heywood murdered by poisoning, was not innocent victim but one who is savvy and manipulative. 

While some speculate that Gu is made the scapegoat to take Bo's fall, a number of China watchers (not experts) contradict themselves by saying that Bo was doomed. Why not use this as a convenient excuse to get rid of the clan and their underlings?  Yet, there are others who believe that Bo could make a comeback. This is unlikely unless he has superhuman power and connections in the next leadership. The high level of publicity may end with an anti-climax whimper with all the protagonists receding to the background, as with many before who had been disciplined, purged or punished for various degrees and types of offences against the party or the people. 

China is keen to project a positive image to ensure that the its domestic population and the world perceive that justice prevails in this emerging great power. After all, a judiciary was already well-established in ancient times as far back as the 10th Century, notwithstanding political upheavals and machinations in a huge country. The judges must demonstrate sensitivity, independence and pragmatism in this high profile and divisive case of a generation. 

China says Gu Kailai didn't contest murder charge

Though Gu faces possible execution, legal experts say she is likely to be given a commuted death sentence that translates into 10 to 15 years in prison, with her concern for her son's safety providing a mitigating circumstance.

http://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/1680370/China-says-Gu-Kailai-didnt-contest-murder-charge

As a high-flying international lawyer married to one of China's most promising and charismatic politicians and with a son at Harvard, Gu Kailai appeared to have it all. Now she is on trial for murder.

http://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/1680438/Gu-Kailai-High-flying-lawyer-turned-murder-accused

Blind Activist Chen

Who is blind chinese activist Chen Guangchen?

Unlike peaceful civil rights advocates such as Martin Luther King, Chen's methods of protests are violent and destructive to public order and safety. 

On the more positive side, "People who know Chen say he is a Gandhi-esque figure and has a deep optimism that China will inevitably become a country ruled by law,” professor Susan L. Shirk, an expert on Chinese politics at the University of California in San Diego, told NBC News. “He is not a dissident, agitating for a change in government – he just wants China to enforce its own laws." 

There's much more than the mainstream media is willing to choose to portray Chen as a heroic champion of the poor and disabled. He is not a lone campaigner, but has many secret supporters and possibly foreign sponsors. How did Chen accomplish an incredible feat? One needs a well devised and orchestrated plan to escape house detention and make his way to the US embassy. 

Most of all Chen is against China's one-child policy. It is not difficult to associate with the fact that Chen has two children. Most Chinese who wish to have two or more children would move out of China and reside overseas. Without a successful and strict one-child policy, the world population would have more than two billion ethnic Chinese. That would sound scary to some people. 

Chen has tested the weakness of the security system and pushed the limits. China's provincial officials are rough in handling criminals and disobedient citizens. Police brutality (not unheard of in the US during the 1960s) is rampant in local jurisdictions. As a result the whole nation's name goes down with the misconduct of errant state and local officials. 

Chen does not have the credentials that would qualify as a skilled migrant to a western or developed country. He must acquire international fame (or notoriety) to get on board the ship. He has risen from obscurity to warrant getting the attention of the US Congressional Hearing.

Is Chen worth US risking ties with China. Washington has calibrated the act well by using Chen as a vehicle to embarrass China in front of the world, but at the same time playing the good guy, enough to avoid a diplomatic row, by reassuring its creditor and competitor that it meant well and treasured bilateral relations. The sensitive term of political asylum has been avoided so far. Nonetheless, US taking in Chen into embassy grounds is not in line with diplomatic decorum, international laws, amounting to an unfriendly act. 

The Republican Presidential candidate Mitt Romney is critical of Hilary Clinton and Obama's handling of the Chen fiasco. MR reveals disrespect and ignorance of international law. He ought to reflect on sharing goodies with the poor and powerless of their own country and abide by the American constitution. before aggressively interfering in other country's affairs. 

Anyway, there is not much Chen could contribute by remaining in China. In his words, Chen hopes to seek medical treatment, rest and study in the US. NYU has offered Chen a place normally reserved for the high achievers. Hopefully, his aspirations are fulfilled and he learns more about the West (not just the idealist imsge he imagined from a distance). 

Change for better or worse - China target post-Bo Xilai fiasco

Viewed with outsider lens and attempting to impose Juedo-Christian tradition, law and political mould, William Pesek presents a more pessimistic and patronising analysis. 

The subtle tussles may not be evident to most China watchers but to the experts who watch every step closely, the horse trading has been going behind the scenes, beneath the relatively calm surface. Hence the explosive scandal came as a shock to many Chinese and foreigners alike. 

Sure, focussing on the gossipy and juicy parts of the scandal would only hamper a deeper understanding of the key issues that would really matter to China's future. 

Corruption and bending rules have long been recognised as potential time bombs and have been addressed delicately by the Chinese central leadership. At times, the most severe penalty have been meted out including death sentences. However, these moves had not been implemented as coherently, quicklyand lawfully as some impatient external observers and idealists hope for. As if it had not been sufficiently drastic and destabilising.  

Even the most cynical China critic must admit that the Chinese economy, human rights record, legal system, political participation and redistribution of power and wealth have undergone immense transformation and bold experimentation. Transparency and accountability have improved despite fledging areas which seem to get undue attention. 

The bottomline is that princelings and ideologues who form part of the stabilising foundation could be removed when they ran foul of the law and commit excesses for self enrichment at the expense of the people's interests. It is a step forward in people's democracy but the road ahead is fraught with dangers. 

Antiquated political structure may be only in form whereas the economics and government has undergone incredible overhaul in essence more than any other country in the world in recent times. 

Here may be something that wealthy bankers and big business who have a stranglehold on politicians through lobbying and interest groups could take a leaf from to sort out their own unique set of problems despite having a well developed democratic and legal system in place.  

Occupy Wall Street - who wishes for color revolution in the faltering economies and social inequalities in developed world. Just wondering?

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-04-17/billionaires-make-killing-amid-china-murder-tale.html

"It’s the rare scandal that involves murder, corruption, Harvard University and comparisons to Jacqueline Kennedy. The Bo Xilai kerfuffle now mesmerizing China offers all this and perhaps more: It could forever change an entire political system.
---   ---  ---

We’re missing the true story here, though. It’s really more evidence that China’s political system is trapped in the past, while its economy races ahead. This dangerous mismatch is often dismissed by pundits and investors, and yet Bo’s ambitious rise and fall, as well as the opacity surrounding it, embodies much of what’s wrong in the fastest-growing major economy.

China is iPad central, with state-of-the-art factories, modern office towers of mirrored glass, six-lane highways, high- speed rail, expanding WiFi networks and state wealth that’s the envy of Washington and Tokyo. China’s nouveau riche are so vital to Prada SpA, Louis Vuitton and Mercedes-Benz that they have been called the “Middle Blingdom.”

Yet China’s political system dates to the days of Mao and Josef Stalin. As democracy takes root from Egypt to Myanmar, China is still mired in closed-door deliberations, backroom deals and purges. This murky world is bumping up against a burgeoning Internet culture that makes it impossible to contain and control the news.

---  ---  ----

In 2011, the richest 70 members of China’s legislature were worth more than the annual gross domestic product of Slovakia. The $90 billion concentrated among them is both emblematic of how China’s model is failing the masses and why Communist Party bigwigs will stonewall any change that crimps their income.

Because the extremely wealthy are often politicians, China may have a truly difficult time retooling its economy and narrowing the rich-poor divide. The hurdles to reform increase the odds of a hard landing in China that breeds social unrest.

We can marvel over Bo’s downfall. We can go on about how China’s leadership refuses to countenance rising political stars who challenge its clubby world. We can engage in whodunit fantasies about the wife and the dead businessman. But more than anything, this tale shows how an antiquated political system imperils a nation’s future.

Positives and Negatives of Bo Xilai Scandal

Extremist Maoist Bo Xilai would have caused much damage and negated China's achievements if he had made it to the top. While factional infighting is more stable and mature coalition, divisions must be healed and decadence eradicated by seizing this opportunity to unify and reform the flawed system. 

The chances of a comeback for Bo have been dimmed to nothingness.  Treason, crime and concentration of power in one person is incompatible with today's collective leadership.  That Deng Xiaoping was rehabilitated after several power struggles and Cultural Revolution because of his sincerity and passion for uplifting China. Bo could only rise to the post as mafia busting owing to his mafia and unlawful methods. He does not possess the essential traits for national leadership. Let this be a lesson to aspiring Chinese leaders who want the short cut and devious ways to power. 

A must-read for every one who is interested in China:

http://www.nbr.org/research/activity.aspx?id=236

Quote : Excerpts of "Bo Xilai Crisis : A Curse of Blessing?"

Cheng Li, an expert on Chinese elite politics and a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution :

the dismissal of Bo Xilai is a very positive event in China’s political development. While it has already constituted the most serious political crisis since the 1989 Tiananmen incident (and perhaps since the 1971 Lin Biao incident), the Hu Jintao–Wen Jiabao administration may have successfully avoided an even bigger crisis. In stark contrast with the 1989 Tiananmen incident, China’s economy and society have hardly been disrupted, at least up until now. This reflects the maturity of Chinese society and the strength of the country as a whole. To a great extent, this crisis has been a good thing for China. It not only reveals major flaws in the Chinese political system, but may also help the Chinese leadership, intellectual communities, and the general public reach a new consensus, thus contributing to bold and genuine political reforms. However, if the leadership fails to seize this great opportunity, the CCP will be in greater jeopardy in the years to come.

Bo Xilai’s story is certainly linked to China’s present-day factional politics, which I characterize as “one party, two coalitions.” One coalition is led by former president Jiang Zemin’s protégés. While the core of this coalition used to be the so-called Shanghai Gang, “princelings” (leaders who come from high-ranking family backgrounds) have become more central since the fall of Shanghai party boss Chen Liangyu on corruption charges in 2006. Bo Xilai is a princeling, as his father Bo Yibo was a revolutionary veteran who served as vice premier. The other coalition primarily consists of former officials from the Chinese Communist Youth League and is led by President Hu Jintao and Premier Wen Jiabao. These two coalitions fight with each other over power, influence, and policy initiatives. Bo Xilai’s career advancement can certainly be attributed to his princeling background and his patron-client ties with Jiang Zemin.

Bo’s downfall is also related to his own egotistical personality and notorious ambition. While his ambitions were most recently focused on achieving a seat on the Politburo Standing Committee, it would have not stopped there. In the months preceding the crisis, members of Bo’s staff spread the rumor that he could become China’s next premier. In addition, Su Wei, a scholar close to Bo at the Chongqing Party School, compared Bo Xilai and Chongqing mayor Huang Qifan to former leaders Mao Zedong and Zhou Enlai in comments circulated in both the Chongqing and national media.

The Bo episode is also related to ideological conflict, as he was associated with China’s “new left” thinking—especially through his Mao-style campaigns, such as the “smash the black” anti–organized crime campaign—and advocated an ultra-egalitarian and ultra-nationalist development model for China, known as the “Chongqing model.”

But this episode is really more than the sum of these factors. Most importantly, it involves Wang Lijun’s attempted defection to the United States and the charges against Bo’s wife related to the murder or assassination of British citizen Neil Heywood. The Chinese public has been shocked by both incidents, since this is a very unusual set of events in CCP history. How is it possible that national hero Wang Lijun and one of China’s top leaders are capable of such actions? When these kinds of charges are involved, all Chinese leaders—regardless of which faction they belong to—will not support Bo Xilai any longer, because the current crisis poses a challenge to the legitimacy of the CCP itself. The stakes are very high, and the challenge facing the CCP leadership is intimidating.

factional politics: the tensions between the princelings coalition and the Youth League coalition.

Specifically, the other princeling leaders wanted to use Bo to their advantage. Within elite circles, Bo was nicknamed “the cannon” because he was always ready to attack his political rivals, including Hu Jintao, Wen Jiabao, and Bo’s liberal counterpart—Guangdong party chief Wang Yang. Thus, he was considered a much-needed weapon by the other princelings, though they did not necessarily like or trust him. On the other hand, Hu Jintao and Wen Jiabao saw Bo as a liability for their opposition because they believed Bo’s campaigns were doomed to fail and that he ultimately would undermine the strength of the princelings due to his divisive tactics. In addition, his Cultural Revolution–style initiatives were seen by Hu and Wen as remnants of the past with no hope of succeeding. Therefore, they may have been even less concerned about Bo than some of the other heavyweights in the princeling camp.

In fact, Bo had many enemies, including at least four major groups: (1) liberal intellectuals, who often regarded him not only as a Maoist, but also as a Nazi-like leader who often singled out particular social groups as targets; (2) lawyers and legal professionals alarmed at his roughshod treatment of Chinese legal practices in Chongqing and Dalian; (3) the majority of political and military elites, who feared Bo did not play according to the rules and would take China down the wrong path; and (4) entrepreneurs in China and abroad alarmed at Bo’s anti-market tendencies, evident in his rough handling of Wal-Mart stores in Chongqing.

At the 2007 Party Congress, Bo had aggressively sought two positions, membership in the Politburo and a vice-premiership. In my view, the fact that he got the former but not the latter was the result of a compromise between the two camps. Assigning him to an interior city like Chongqing was an effort on the part of Hu and Wen to reduce Bo’s influence and power. While there were some unconfirmed reports during his first few months on the job that he was deeply dissatisfied with his new assignment, in the end he did a remarkable job of putting Chongqing on China’s political map and, for a time, effectively turned it into his own personal kingdom. Regardless, prior to this most recent scandal, there had been long-standing concerns among the Chinese political establishment that Bo would go too far and undermine the unity of the central leadership of the CCP. Even before the latest scandal, some in Beijing felt that Bo would not receive a seat on the Politburo Standing Committee because he was so divisive and could cause trouble for the CCP as a whole. Certainly, with Wang Lijun’s actions, Bo Xilai’s career was over immediately.

Although the princelings did support Bo and used him when convenient, this does not mean that they gave him a blank check to do as he pleased. Just as there is political infighting within the political parties in the United States, the relationship among members of a Chinese coalition is both cooperative and competitive.

Much has been made of Xi’s visit to Chongqing in December 2011, interpreted by some as an endorsement of Bo. Five Politburo Standing Committee members visited Chongqing, and Bo interpreted this as an endorsement of his leadership and his Chongqing model.  

It is unclear whether Bo would have fallen if Wang Lijun had not gone to the U.S. consulate. I believe it would have been much more difficult to purge Bo without Wang’s actions due to strong factional tensions within the leadership, as Bo not only represented himself but also a social movement. Even today, some people are suspicious of whether this entire incident is true and whether the death of Heywood has anything to do with Bo and Gu. Some even accuse the United States of involvement in a conspiracy. However, the evidence provided by Wang Lijun made the case against Bo much easier and clear-cut. Thus, without Wang Lijun’s dramatic visit to the consulate, removing Bo would have been much more difficult for his opponents to achieve, though given Bo’s actions and the ongoing investigation of him, he may have fallen eventually even without this crisis.

The party leadership will be extremely cautious and not expand the scope of the Bo Xilai case to other leaders. Purges will be relatively limited. The fact that certain leaders closely affiliated with Bo, such as Huang Qifan, are still free implies that the top leadership does not intend to punish too many people. The fact that the country is on the eve of the 18th Party Congress, with so many destabilizing factors, will also lead the leadership to limit the scope of targeted officials.

Therefore, though the Bo case is a victory for Hu and Wen, this victory will not necessarily translate into more seats for their coalition on the Politburo Standing Committee. To a certain extent, this explains why Guangdong’s liberal party chief Wang Yang has been reluctant to claim victory since there still could be a backlash against him. The makeup of the future Politburo Standing Committee will largely be determined through compromises between the two coalitions. The balance of power within this system will not be easily changed. If the princeling faction collapsed, this would constitute an unimaginable revolution with implications for Chinese politics and social instability ten times greater than the Bo scandal. Thus, at the moment, there is a tremendous incentive for the party’s top leadership to preserve the current structure of “one party, two coalitions,” and show unity and solidarity.

Evidence of the Chinese leadership’s unity on this matter can be found in the man who replaced Bo as party chief of Chongqing, Zhang Dejiang, a protégé of Jiang Zemin and part of the same princeling coalition as Bo. This appointment means that a deal has been made and the top leadership of the party is united. To a certain extent, this is similar to what happened in 2006 with the fall of Shanghai party boss Chen Liangyu. All those who have followed Chen as Shanghai party boss, including Xi Jinping, have been protégés of Jiang Zemin, just as Chen was.

Consequently, it is highly likely that Bo’s potential seat on the Politburo Standing Committee will be taken by someone from the princeling coalition. Zhang Dejiang would likely have attained a seat on the committee regardless of Bo’s fall, though he will now probably receive an even more important position. Zhang Gaoli, the party chief of Tianjin, and Shanghai party chief Yu Zhengsheng, both protégés of Jiang Zemin, are now likely to go further with Bo gone. Though we do not know for sure which specific officials will receive which posts, I do think it is highly likely that the factional balance of power on the Politburo Standing Committee will remain unchanged with five seats for one coalition and four for the other.

The Cultural Revolution and the 1989 Tiananmen incident are two of the great disasters in the history of the CCP, but in the aftermath of these events you see opening and reform after the Cultural Revolution and the acceleration of China’s market transition and integration with the outside world after Tiananmen, respectively. Positive political developments came out of these terrible events. There is hope that something similar may yet happen following the Bo crisis. Lessons will be learned, a consensus will be reached, and bold decisions will be pursued. Wen Jiabao, in recent comments at the National People’s Congress, said very clearly that the party-state leadership system needs to be changed and that the rule of law should be emphasized in the handling of Wang Lijun’s case in order for the CCP to endure the test of history.

Learning from this crisis is not a choice for the CCP as much as it is a necessity. If nothing changes, the party will continue to lose its credibility. I believe the characterization of the Chinese political system as “resilient authoritarianism” is incorrect. While the prevailing view had been that this year’s leadership procession would go smoothly, two years ago I argued that the upcoming succession would be highly problematic and feature some sort of major crisis. Now the general sentiment is that China is in a terrible situation due to a vicious power struggle, but I am more optimistic. China has removed a major danger and avoided the worst scenario, which would have been taking the country down a Maoist, ultranationalist path. Of course, Bo’s chances of accomplishing this were always slim, but now they are close to zero. This is solid progress, and a reason to be more optimistic about China’s future.

Elections : Chinese direct democracy models have come a long way

It is a step forward for the Chinese government (with overlapping membership of Chinese Communist Party) to public promote direct elections in the country.

http://www.chinastudygroup.org/li-zhaoxing-china-direct-elections-are-there-difficulties.html

Indeed, the People's Congress has a strong foundation build from grassroots elections, unlike the less participatory and representative primaries of US presidential elections.

http://www.world-china.org/newsdetail.asp?newsid=3306

This may come as a surprise to many so-called China watchers who are no experts in the multi level and regional people's government. Way back in the 1980s, just out of the Cultural Revolution, Chinese people have taken the initiative to experiment with democracy from the grassroots upwards. This was enshrined in the 1982 constitutional reform. Village committees have been thriving since then, though these are never captured or picked up in the mainstream western media. Contrary to the impression of an all-powerful central authority and top down directives, local governments (for better or for worse) could formulate suitable policies make independent decisions.

https://www.chinabusinessreview.com/public/0103/horsley.html

http://aceproject.org/ace-en/topics/es/esy/esy_cn

Mao Zedong's call for people's democracy had been tainted by his personal insecurity, attachment to theories and his henchmen's hunger for power. Ironically though, perhaps Chinese are experimenting participatory politics that suit local conditions to fulfil the aspirations of their "great leader" who liberated them from slavery and colonialisation.

China is even considering holding direct elections in Hong Kong in five years' time due to the close ties between the former British colony and mainland.

http://chinaelectionsblog.net/?p=15493

While China is improving, the West has been on decline with regard to "democracy". The developed world has evolved into a less democratic system, too entrenched in money politics.  Electorate are either disillusioned and apathetic to participate.  At the same time populist single issue politicians and parties in the likes conservative and intolerant Tea Party are exploiting the less educated working class to power.

Instead of vilifying China's democratic models, perhaps those who professed to be practising democracy should reflect, observe others, and look internally for reforms. Who would have expected protests to gather strength among free and contented citizens of democratic countries? Only in poor, deprived and authoritarian systems in the less developed world - but stay tuned, things are changing gradually but surely. For a huge diverse nation like China, economic and social stability should take precedence. Culturally, the self could be sacrificed for common good. A hundred years is not too long to wait.

Kevin Rudd is no China lover nor expert

Chinese among Kevin Rudd supporter who don't already know that he is biased towards Chinese and passionately and unquestionably pro-US may be relieved that he failed to gain the party support to replace  Julia Gillard as Prime Minister.  It is not a consolation that Gillard is no better. She is biased due to her ill-informed and apathy on foreign policy issues. 


China is unfazed by the bickering Down under.  Nevertheless, it has a longstanding and consistent policy of not taking sides in any country's affairs. This is a world of difference from certain developed nations that actively support and supplies material aid for rebels and lobbies in other government. 


A Chinese speaking Australian leader is no big deal these days especially if one is full of himself and does not aspire to learn and make improvements.  This has earned Rudd the reputation of being most tactless and undiplomatic diplomat not just within his own cabinet, party but overseas.  Many Australian academics and businessmen are critical of Rudd's limited understanding of the dynamics in Chinese politics and economy. 


QUOTE :  

Top Chinese researcher and ex-diplomat Jiang Yuechun said :

''Kevin Rudd has been broadly supportive of the US's return to Asia and various Japanese designs for the Pacific co-operations - we have had many clashes as a result of that. I think the return of Rudd will create more friction and warning points on regional and strategic issues,  ....   


the troubled state of relations between the two nations during Mr Rudd's stint as prime minister. ''We all know that when he was still in power, the clashes between two countries have increased noticeably 
 During Mr Rudd's time at The Lodge, the relationship between the two countries was rocked by a series of disputes over foreign investment, defence postures, human rights and the arrest of Australian citizens.
 
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/rudd-return-would-strain-china-links-says-scholar-20120226-1twiy.html

Motivations and Mental State of Suicide Burners - a few depressed Tibetan Monks

A few Tibetan monks who burned themselves since the turn of the new year gaining a share of the headlines and get to the intended international audience. 


It is shocking to say the least.  Not since the Vietnam war have we witnessed such gory and drastic actions from spiritual practitioners. 


There is a fine line between immolation which is hailed as heroic and delusional suicide. Unlike Islamist suicide bombers who bring down innocent bystanders in the vicinity, self annihilators limit the damage. Whatever their religious beliefs or agenda, the violent and horrific images  evoke strong emotions and leave long-lasting scars.  


In the West, we would regard anyone who injures or kills himself nuts, as with cultists who commit suicide, mass shooting or assassinate a President.


I'm not a trained psychologist but I have heard from experts and friends in this field, and have met a number of sad people with diverse mental disorders. 


There are many who justify drastic actions but their "logic" is entirely divergent from ours.  We sympathise and wish to help them seek professional aid, that is if they want to be helped and "saved" by opening up to various avenues. However, no informed individuals with the right frame of mind should partake in such folly and flawed judgement. 


Why Dalai Lama cannot and will not help?


His Holiness name has long been the war mantra for thousands of protestors of ethnic origin living in China, India, Nepal and the West.


Firstly, it is beyond the Dalai Lama's capability to help. Though his formal title is chief of the Yellow Hats, one among the handful of Tibetan religious sects. Therefore he is not representative of Tibetans.   


Secondly, his Holiness has no incentive to return to China when he is enjoying the limelight with $2 million donations in addition to his $200,000 personal allowance in "donations" from Hollywood and NED (CIA). 


While His Holiness had enjoyed autonomy which he has been mumbling about, but sought foreign help to launch a failed revolt which led to 50 years of exile. 


His paymasters are cutting budget and could not afford his lavish lifestyle and irregularities by his feudalistic, nepotist and corrupt cabinet.


Thirdly, both the Dalai Lama and his paymasters realise that it would be impossible to topple the Chinese government much as they try and would like to. 


The US government and organisations and Britain since the 1900s recognise Tibet as part of China. The geostrategic importance of mineral endowed Central Asia is the biggest prize but too far to reach. It would suffice that Dalai Lama serves as a pawn to rally dissidents to undermine China, the US' biggest economic rival and more recently a model for developing countries. 

http://www.agreatdeception.com/what-has-the-dalai-lama-achieved

China could learn and gain from Nordic Democracy to govern progressive diverse nation - best of both worlds for capitalism and socialism in practice

While many Finnish are knowledgeable, wise and analytical, there are some who do not read widely and become susceptible to hearsay from journalists promoting sensational news and ill disciplined liberalism without regard for history, culture and national sovereignty and international peace.

http://www.eaea.org/index.php?k=12041
The truth about Tibet and Dalai Lama

By Eirik Granqvist (China Daily)

http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/opinion/2011-12/21/content_14297105.htm

Most Finns (Swedes and Swiss) are well educated, widely read and well travelled people.

Chinese are pragmatic people. Its government and intellectuals are better off studying the Nordic democratic models which suit China than looking at the elusive and failed American and Greek models of democracy.

In the past, religions such as Buddhism have been imported into China and given a Chinese cultural identity. The same can be said of growing Christian foothold in China which play an important social role while not forgetting practices that are traditionally Chinese.

Some visionary forecasters are placing their bets on a cohesive multicultural Chinese surviving the odds and challenges of globalisation and development than say "democratic" divisive and sectarian  India.

At the end of the tunnel, China will find its way to build a unique model of democracy suited to its own needs. It will not benefit much from a foreign formula that is out of place with Chinese culture.

Beijing's Coalition of the Willing not a one track single way zero sum game

China has steered an independent path from the US and the Soviet Union evident from the Sino-Soviet split, Sino-American normalisation and post-Mao modernisation and open door policy.

Rather than viewing China's rising stars to reach the limitless sky and imposition of authoritarianism, China has adapted and bent to suit international norms.  Entry to WTO has been back breaking even to the extent of bankrupting many inefficient businesses.  China has come a long way and absorbed many western ideas, economic management and cultures to come to this day and stage of development.

Unlike plundering by previous and continuing colonialist/ imperialist industrial-military collaboration, China has given aid without strings attached to Third World countries.

The learning process is a dual carriageway. China is adept at imitating and adopting practices and even values that would promote its economic and national interests. It is a unique model that is still evolving, but which has so far shown to be working successful. You can't blame many developing nations from wanting to choose a better model over the high sounding "free" world's which has a poor track record.

From emperor with his cabinet, to chaotic elitist Republic, social egalitarianism, Mao dictatorship to the present day collective leadership and local elections. Isn't that change?

The Greek model of democracy was elitist and universal franchise was non-existent until the turn of the century. European countries which boast of liberalism today took hundreds of years to allow commoners and women to vote.

Going by the frank admission by Chinese leadership that the country must relax its controls, China will but not overnight as many had hoped for. Neither would it bail out irresponsible western governments and unethical businesses without conditions, scrutiny and accountability. The bottomline is to preserve stability as it has for thousands of years for it to survive as a civilisation on earth.

http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/society-and-culture/china-marks-the-route-on-new-global-roadmap-20111223-1p8hu.html

http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2010/06/21/beijings_coalition_of_the_willing?page=full

Tibetan Monks' Suicide Mission - marginal sect's interpretation of Buddhism and politics

Monks from Kriti monastery have burnt themselves to send a message to Beijing.  They are said to be close and sympathetic to the exiled Dalai Lama and the controversial anti-government Kriti Rinpoche.

http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5geqMJgfzWImzR1kzZ-sA7cPamEQg?docId=CNG.85d6efd89b39fb7853a1eb4f76261036.431


Self immolation is unheard of in Tibet until recently. It is also discouraged in Buddhist teachings.

It is assumed that His Highness condones such behaviour. Tibetan monks are willing suicide burners to pressure Beijing.

It is a reminder of inferno monks during the Vietnam War which caught media attention. But it was the cost of the war that led to the withdrawal, not protests.

Majority of Tibetans are now enjoying a higher standard of living, modern universal multilingual education and  temples receive huge amounts of funding from the government as well as other ethnic followers of Tibetan Buddhism. The cultural genocide charges levelled against Beijing by the Dalai Lama could not be proven or substantiated. Instead, exiled Tibetans have lost much of their cultural heritage compared to their cousins living in mainland China.

The Dalai Lama has been accused of human rights abuses, nepotism and hypocrisy by the Western Dorje Shugden. But victims endured discrimination and harassment and had not resorted to burning themselves to seek attention.

http://www.westernshugdensociety.org/files/tibetan_situation.pdf

Arab Spring bug : better pray that China summer will pass, as no one will be wiser or better when revolution and misfortunate strike

At this time of the year, it is confirmed that there won't be a spring revolution in China.

http://chinainformzen.blogspot.com/2011/02/china-blooms-warding-off-jasmine.html

But speculators are putting forth ingredients for a China summer.
http://the-diplomat.com/2011/08/20/china%e2%80%99s-summer-of-discontent/

Questions must be asked. But to what extent should opposition forment revolution to topple the government and then what? The scene will be ugly and disastrous.

The international economic environment and spate of natural disasters are unfavourable to most countries. Social tensions would be multiplied many times over when government incompetence and irregularities trigger unhappiness and unrest. Could any other governments have done a better job? That is for the people to weigh the balance of probabilities and assess if it is worthwhile to risk discarding whatever gains made so far for some elusive goals.

The next wave of unrest is more likely to happen in the US and Europe if UK is an example to follow. Spain and Greece are experiencing much worse economic woes and unemployment problems than most countries in Asia.

Reports contrary to the relatively smooth and "bloodless" overthrow of the Gaddafi regime by Libyan rebels supported by NATO forces showed human rights violations and bloodshed. Note that Libya is a small country. Those who wish for China summer or whatever season uprisings were to take place are sadistic. Will the Libyan people be better off. We don't need to wait much longer to see the outcome.

Bo Xilai : red revolution China necessary to counter excessive capitalism, plutocracy and inequality

How do analysts reconcile the fact that Bo Xilai and his family who were victims of Mao's purges during the Cultural Revolution has now become a fan of borrowing from Maoist ideas for good governance.

They don't and simply assume that communism is in the blood of Chinese leaders. Indeed, many articles published in the English language media has created more confusion than offered answers to understanding this fast rising next generation leader.

Bo Xilai and other leaders who had survived the Cultural Revolution know well that Maoist tactics are effective in mobilising people to do what is morally right to override the poorly developed and corrupt ridden legal system and mafia controls. Of course when misused for personal power enhancement and glorification, it had caused social upheavals, personal suffering and immense economic damage to the nation.

Perhaps it is timely to reintroduce some elements of desirable socialist traits into the highly successful albeit skewed economy. When the ills of capitalism are creeping in causing wide disparity in the social and economic (between the rich and poor and coastal and provincial areas), socialist campaigns are necessary to steer a balance and fairness.

China has learned from painful history lessons that excessive indulgence in one model and the neglect people welfare would bring about the downfall of the country rapidly.

Of course, no one is naive not to recognise that the communist party leaders have an interest to continue exerting power. There is no doubt that the communist party is not ready to give up power and let the people run amok. That is wishful thinking of scholars who wish the Chinese people ill.  Look at it positively, in fact stronger central control would effectively get rid of deviant and corrupt provincial officials. Hence there is a growing assymetry between what is good for the country, government and people.

This is a great contrast to the campaigns organised by the American Tea Party which had been manipulated by Republicans to pursue their selfish agenda and protected vested interests of the rich at the expense of the poor and working class who could not appreciate the need for belt-tightening and tax policies to serve their long term good.  
QUOTE :

Bo defended the red culture campaign, saying, “We aim to encourage people’s spirits.”

Bo said his campaign has four aspects — reading Chinese and foreign classics, including the theories of Mao and other Marxist leaders; telling popular stories; circulating inspiring mottos (such as, “Serve the people with a full heart!”); and group-singing of revolutionary anthems. “We should spread these things more,” Bo said.

Many here, including Communist Party adherents, agree that this revival of revolutionary fervor is needed to instill a new sense of pride and common purpose, adding that they feared China’s decades-long rush to get rich has eroded the country’s moral bearings and created an ethos of unchecked materialism.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/southwestern-chinese-city-leading-red-revival/2011/06/25/AGkh8JnH_story.html?wprss=rss_world

General Liu Yuan says : read Zhang Musheng's "Changing our cultural history perspective"

Critics who alleged that Liu Yuan is sabre rattling obviously did not bother to read his "preface" to the book published by his social commentator friend Zhang Musheng some four years ago. Nor do they have any knowledge, understanding or appreciation of Chinese history.

Liu has certainly caught international attention though not in a favourable light. Bold imagery indeed but it is meant to wake the Chinese people from their slumber, not to alarm the insecure countries that are always on the lookout for pretext to brand China as expansionist.

Interestingly, a few pages penned by Liu whose main intention was to encourage readers to "savour" Zhang's collection of essays by Chinese thinkers could send shockwaves worldwide and spin wild speculations of China's rising militarism and leadership split!

A quick preview and gist of Liu Yuan's comments :

Liu rejects transplanting western democratic model into China as it will backfire. China should grow and embrace its unique and indigenous form of new democracy(similar to what his father Liu Shaoqi and Deng Xiaoping promoted).

History has shown that American, Japanese and Soviet systems were detrimental and could egulf China. The examples of Yugoslavia, Singapore and Hungary are only quick-fix potions. China should continue evolving and reforming itself with courage.

Indeed, people of China or the world for that matter, should not forget thousands of years of history. The reasons why the communist revolution took place was to unify the country, get rid of inequality, corrupt officials and foreign invasion and plunder. Life for the poor Chinese masses was difficult and untenable.

China has succeeded in feeding and clothing the starving millions and poor. However, economic growth based on the capitalist model has also contributed to the widening gap between the wealthy and poor, the coastal cities and remote provinces. Lest the Chinese forget and throw away all the hardwon gains from bloodshed and sacrifices through the revolutionary and reform years, the book is a timely reminder and stimulus for positive national action.  


Zhang is also known to be critical of corruption and ill discipline of some Chinese communist cadres. Does this mean that Liu implicitly or tacitly favours eradicating self-serving and bribe taking officials?

General Liu is a nationalist, like many Chinese. However, his outspoken style is not typical of Chinese leaders who are too polite and submissive. 

So, before anyone gives their two cents worth, go read the originals.

I'll be back with the full translation and informed analysis.

Chinese speaking Australian Foreign Minister Kevin Rudd (former PM) is no China expert?

The outgoing Australian Ambassador to China Geoff Raby has given some useful tips that unmasked the ignorance of China expert wannabes. Outward appearances such as ability to speak Mandarin are deceptive - these people usually have no clue about China.

http://www.theage.com.au/national/departing-ambassador-flays-rudd-20110518-1et6o.html

Two years ago, I had warned excited friends and online commentators to be more circumspect with the Prime Minister hopeful Kevin Rudd.

Indeed subsequent policies under Rudd's leadership showed he was antagonistic towards China. His failure to give face to the Chinese hosts by publicly chiding them of human rights violation without acknowledging the progress made was an immediate failure for China 101. Rudd's White Paper which identified China's growing influence in the region and naval buildup as a balance to the longstanding US presence was another thorn that strained bilateral relations.

Tough talking Kevin Rudd cares more about pleasing his xenophobic constituency and showing off to his western counterparts. Heed not his aggressive and confrontational advice or risk going to war in East Asia (after failures in Middle East, Vietnam and Africa). His personality and prejudices have hindered Australia's bid to make gains in its foreign policy objectives. Why would the USA and European leaders want to learn from Rudd?

People gave Rudd too much credit for being able to speak Chinese. Though he enunciates fairly accurate intonation, he sticks to the typical westernised reverse sentence strucutre, comprehensible but that's not Chinese.
There are many so-called Chinese experts commenting on China from their ivory tower or choosing to report on one apsect of the historically complex, multidimensional and multicultural nation only.  There is much more to learn for everyone, including ethnic Chinese diaspora in the world who have often made summary erroreous judgements about China time and again.

The same maxim should apply to the writer of the report (John Garnaut) whose lack of understanding of his coverage is due not to his language handicap but tinted lenses.

Some cynical business commentators call for "long-term" planning. However, it one can't get pass the short-term, the long-term destination will be irrelevant. While Asia will face problems of ageing, the huge savings and market for aged is an area industrialised and advanced economies could target. Moreover, it does not look as if the US and Europe will get out of the doldrums anytime soon or if at all without revolutionary change in mindset and policies.

http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/China-Japan-population-mining-BHP-pd20110519-GYSSD?opendocument&src=rss

Anxiety about Ai Weiwei? Who is he?

Who is Ai Weiwei?

The Truths about Ai Wei Wei

1. He did not design the bird's nest Olympic Stadium. Claims somehow become truths after the media report and repeat them

2. He is an eccentric bum / hobo / illegal / gambler / beggar. His integrity and credibility are questionable.

3. He has an axe to grind with the Chinese authorities and would rather whip up a storm than to compromise. He only told half truths about the episode of his studio's demolition among others.

4. His support base is outside China. He has no regard for the Chinese motherland.

To the majority of the Chinese population, Ai Weiwei is not well known. Nor is he representative of their aspirations. Least of all, Chinese people would even regard him as a hero or a leader of their destiny. Certainly the media attention and frenzy have been disportionate and uncalled for.

Ai Weiwei may have some abstract artistic talents. His antics have thus far been tolerated by the authorities. While we await the investigations on Ai's economic crimes, shouldn't we civilised folks be patient and respectful.

China Blooms, warding off Jasmine Revolution

Plum flowers which thrive in harsh winter conditions are blossoming during the spring festival which coincides with the celebration of the lunar new year.

There is no sign or potential for a Jasmine Revlution. The bottomline is that China is not Egypt, or any of the self-enriching and uncaring Middle Eastern autocratic regimes.

While China continues to be plague by social problems of the old as well as effects from economic development, the leadership is making effort albeit with mixed success in resolving them. Not many countries in the advanced economies could claim credit for good economic management.  The Chinese leadership is disciplined in esnsuring a balanced budge and keep unemployment and inflation down. Corrupt officials are investigated and meted with harsh penalties if found guilty. Policies have been geared towards institutionisation and legal framework that is clear and consistent.  Of course, like most developing countries, China is still finding its way to leapfrog in the least painful means possible.

The bottomline is : the vast majority of the Chinese people do not want to see turbulent, turmoil and bloodshed. Personal and community interests rank higher than democratic ideals. Most of the complaints involve land disputes, unequal contracts, corrupt provincial officials, labour compensation and environmental issues.  The Chinese people know too well from past revolutions that they could first and foremost be empowered with economic wealth and education.

Say what you may about information restrictions. Control of the internet, checks on dissidents, university students and workers have stemmed the sparks of discontent from turning into flames. The Chinese media including private organisations are self discipline and impose self censorship to avoid getting into trouble with the law, but more importantly, to exercise discretion, objectivity and responsibility in reporting. Chinese people know too well that political instability will return them to the dark ages, living in fear of political extremism, stagnation and decline.

The Tiananmen generation are now middle age and have become part of the bourgeois class. Many are living overseas, not precluding those who remain, have successful businesses, careers or earning good royalty incomes from publications. Some among the Tiananmen heroes are disillusioned and circumspect with politics.

Gone are the days of a single dictator or all mighty party.  The Chinese Communist Party is a collective leadership and consolidating grassroots support is the key to the party's legitimacy. As long as it endeavours to ensure food security, respect for laws, implement social reforms and safety net, address environmental issues, and work towards equal opportunities and equity, revolutions are probably a thing of the past. Sorry to disappoint democracy advocates and fighters.